Evolution of Inflation Expectations

This was a paper that was published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco as part of its working paper series. Although it was published in 2011, its conclusions are as relevant today as they were then. Studying the Great Inflation of the 1960s & 1970s seems especially appropriate given that the whole world, including yours truly, is completely convinced that we are in the throes of a deflationary spiral.

Please click here for the paper: Monetary Policy Mistakes And the Evolution of Inflation Expectations

Chinese Hard Landing

When we think of China, we think of it as a slowing giant that’s nearing its end instead of thinking of it as a giant that’s undergoing metamorphosis from its industrial form to its consumer form. Regardless of where you stand on China here’s an interesting paper published by the Banque De France that assesses the near term impact of of this transition.  Please click here for the paper: TOWARDS RECOUPLING