Short AUD/CHF

Our Thesis

  • We have been voicing our views on the Australian dollar “AUD” for the last couple of months. For a primer, please check out our previous posts: The Aussie Dollar, In A Checkmate! and Australian Dollar – A Bearish Outlook But A Bullish Set-Up.
  • Protection is cheap:
    • Despite the most heightened uncertainties surrounding China, North Korea, Middle-East, Russia, Turkey, Trump, etc. protection is cheap.
    • Global markets are not prepared for a risk-off scenario.
  • In times of crises, during a risk-off mode, the US dollar, the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc are seen as currency safe-havens.
    • “Ranaldo and Söderlind (2010) showed that the yen and Swiss franc appreciated in a systematic way when risk peaked… De Bock and de Carvalho Filho (2013) found strong evidence for the same conclusion – returns on the yen and Swiss franc outperformed those of all other currencies when risk spiked.” – Adrian Jäggi, Martin Schlegel, Attilio Zanetti.
  • The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) balance sheet size to GDP ratio is nearly 100%, higher than BOJ’s which is at 90% of Japan’s GDP.
    • We will not dare assume that the probability of a currency intervention by the SNB is zero but we do think that the bar for a new round of currency intervention is high considering SNB’s obese balance sheet.
  • China devaluation risks have disappeared only from the minds of traders.
    • Being short the Australian dollar against the Swiss Franc, in our view, is the best way to capture this risk premium.

Please click here to read the entire article.

The Aussie Dollar, In A Checkmate!

Much of the recent optimism in the Australian dollar (AUD) seems to be stemming from one main factor: A rise in global headline inflation number suggesting a commodity price reflation. Whether or not the global uptick in inflation is just a base effect phenomenon or truly sustainable is a big debate by itself but assuming that the recent coordinated rise in global inflation expectations is sustainable and a commodity reflation unfolds I will argue that such commodity reflation might not necessarily translate into a higher AUD.

This article was chosen for publication on Seeking Alpha. Please click here to read the article.

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