Lately, there has been a lot of speculation on who the next US Federal Reserve chairperson will be. Many articles have been written speculating, opining, polling, and inferring the likely outcome as well as likely policy implications; we will not waste our time theorizing the same. Instead, we will focus on the technical aspects of the US treasury futures market and the underlying dynamics of US wage and inflation data.
Our view is that we could be due for an inflation surprise. Interest rate sensitive assets could be vulnerable, the slope of the US yield curve could steepen quite dramatically, and the reflation trade could be back with a vengeance.
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