Recent Publications

1. The Bakavaas (बकवास) Revolution — :(2017)

February 16, 2017

bullshitBakavaas (बकवास) – bullshit, in hindi.

The simultaneous shift, globally, toward populism and demagoguery is being referred to as a Political Revolution. Any revolution in which hatred takes center stage is a bakavaas revolution! It is ludicrous to think that we brought down a wall that symbolized hatred in 1989 only to build another one in 2017! (insert emoticon that shakes its head so vigorously that its brains are flying out). Enough hasn’t been said about this bakavaas revolution.

This is my attempt at addressing the issues that plague our society today: populism and demagoguery…

…“One of the most salient features of our culture is that there is so much bullshit. Everyone knows this. Each of us contributes his share. But we tend to take the situation for granted. Most people are rather confident of their ability to recognize bullshit and to avoid being taken in by it. So the phenomenon has not aroused much deliberate concern, or attracted much sustained inquiry. In consequence, we have no clear understanding of what bullshit is, why there is so much of it, or what functions it serves.”

– Harry Frankfurt, Princeton University

Please click here to continue reading…

2. The Currency Crocodile

December 11, 2016

The BIS publishes excellent data on almost all the currencies in the world; one of the data sets that caught my eye recently was this one: BIS Effective Exchange rate, CPI based, trade weighted. All currencies have been rebased at 100 in 2010. Please click here to continue reading…

.bis-effective-exchange-rate

3. My Macro Thesis And Its Derivatives

September 20, 2016

Before I lay out my macro thesis I would like to draw your attention to Mr. Karl Gustav Cassel, a Swedish economist, professor at Stockholm University, and my inspiration for this thesis.

NPG x84408; Karl Gustav Cassel by Bassano
Source: National Portrait Gallery, London, by Bassano, vintage print, 1933.

Cassel, who is known for his notable contributions to the theory of Purchasing Power Parity, is also one of the only economist who rightly predicted the depression that we all now famously know as The Great Depression.

Anyone interested in understanding Cassel’s hypothesis on the depression of the 1930s should read: ‘ANTICIPATING THE GREAT DEPRESSION? GUSTAV CASSEL’S ANALYSIS OF THE INTERWAR GOLD STANDARD’, a paper written by Douglas A. Irwin and published by National Bureau of Economic Research. Please click here to read the paper.

Approximately 84 years after The Great Depression I find our macro economic landscape to be in a situation very similar to that of the 1930s. Just as Cassel argued that the mismanagement of gold led to the depression of the 1930s I’d argue that the mismanagement of the US dollar has already triggered the depression we are living in. Please click here to continue reading…

4. Breadth of the US Equity Market

July 30, 2016

The 1 year EMA of new lows has clearly crossed over the 1 year EMA of new highs and this invalidates our hypothesis that the US stock market is weak, that the previous cross over was a signal to go short US equities.

We see this as a bullish signal for US equities, and will continue to be positioned long, at least until the two EMAs cross each other again. In this Battle Royale, between earnings and earning’s yield premium, the breadth of the US equity market is telling us that, the latter is kicking the former’s derrièr. Please click here to continue reading…