Exactly a year ago, in May-2016, we published our analysis of Gold demand trends provided by the World Gold Council. We wrote:
Gold price charts and physical gold demand trends offer a dichotomous view on the future of gold price. On the one hand, the extremely lose [sic] monetary policies of the world, and the phenomenal 1st quarter performance of gold relative to every other major asset in the world makes for a very compelling bullish case and on the other hand the physical gold demand trends paint a very bleak, if not scary, picture.
The World Gold Council recently published their 1st quarter 2017 report on gold trends but this time our analysis of that report leaves us with anything but a bearish outlook on gold. We have turned massively bullish on gold and we will outline our reasons below.
Our thesis rests on three reasons:
- Declining global mine production in years to come — a result of past, massive, haircuts to capex by some of the largest gold miners around the world. Gold miners’ Capex has declined 65% from 2012 to 2016.
- Gold is a safe haven asset and according to world Gold Council’s most recent report on demand trends, current uncertainties in China and Europe are driving these flows.
- Technical analysis of gold price chart reveals a strong bullish set-up at a time when this trade is far from being crowded.
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